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Tempt Destiny Experiment
As mentioned on the home page, I needed to know if this documented billboard phenomenon was a coincidence or not. By utilizing scientific methodologies for investigating phenomena, we can clearly evaluate what has taken place. Note: A scientific paper is available for peer review detailing the methodology used in the construct of this experiment. If interested in obtaining a copy for review please send your request to: admin@temptdestiny.com
Chances are you found this page by doing a search or someone told you about it. I have hidden this page for several reasons. Most people do not believe in destiny, at least, what they think destiny is. From my experience, most football fans vote for their team out of superstition, or out of loyalty , or both, but destiny, that's another story. I will be the first to tell you that the billboards I create are not mystical. I have no such special abilities. This is about understanding the concept of predetermined events (destiny) by using a billboard that is created for a specific outcome and observing if, when, or how the desired outcome takes place or not.
If you have visited this page first then I encourage that you also visit the home page and program page which outlines the competition (experiment) being conducted. In addition, the legacy page which provides the documentation of this phenomenon and the destiny page which tells the story of how this all came to be.
Author:
Manuel Morales © 2009
Professor
All of us have been told what destiny is ever since we could remember, even before we were mentally capable to understand such a concept as a child.
On one hand (right glove), we are told that destiny is certainty. That all events whether by chance or by choice is predetermined to be certain.
On the other hand (left glove) we are told that our universe, nature itself, is uncertain. That all events whether by chance or by choice is predetermined to be uncertain.
After ten long years of conducting the Tempt Destiny experiment empirical evidence shows that BOTH concepts are correct - which means both are wrong. Destiny is not one or the other. Destiny is a dichotomy consisting of both – like a pair of gloves. Now before you tune me out ... hear me out for a few sentences more.
Over the years people have asked me why I am doing this since no one is paying me for my time or for the expense of doing this. I trust you'll notice there are no banner ads here at TemptDestiny.com, so I am not getting paid for you visiting my web site or for casting a vote in support of your team. Furthermore, the NY Giants and the New Orleans Saints organizations have not paid me a penny to do this in support of their teams.
What started off as a gesture of good will for a team I then supported as a fan, grew into a quest to find out what this phenomenon was all about. After the second SB victory, I could not help but wonder if this was all just a mere coincidence or just luck. The problem with this thinking was that these billboards were created (cause) exactly for what eventually took place (effect), which means this phenomenon was not an accident so we can rule out this event being a coincidence. Now, I am NOT saying that billboards win Super Bowl games. What I am saying is that the artwork featured on the billboard is reproduced unfinished for a reason. From the first billboard painting to now, the artwork does not get completed (silver football representing the trophy won) until after the team depicted completes it season by winning the SB. Without this victory, the reason for completing the painting is without purpose. That is why you'll notice that the footballs featured in these paintings are either hollow (brown outlined) or transparent and fuzzy.
This approach is no different then doing conceptional artwork designed to be interpreted by, and therefore completed by, the eye of the beholder. And so like the eye of the beholder approach, the team itself (by its efforts) completes the painting. In this manner, we both tempt destiny with the team trying to win the SB and the fans and I in supporting their quest, both goals are one in the same – a SB victory.
So how does all of this play out to be mathematical proven?
(read more by selecting the tabs below)
As defined, destiny is a predetermined event or course of events. Forgive me for stating the obvious, from this understanding everything that takes place is predetermined to be either certain or probable.
Given this basic understanding, I am sure you will agree that if an event is truly certain then it cannot be prevented from happening. This point is at the hart of the Tempt Destiny experiment conducted here over the past ten years. By pairing choice and chance, having the team with the most votes (choice) also win its conference championship game (chance), we can determine if the choice made is true should it overcome the odds (32 fan choices X 32 team chances = 1024 to 1 odds).
Should the choice prove to be true in the first phase of the experiment, then we can test if the choice made is certain to take place by doing another Tempt Destiny billboard of choice. If the chance taken is true, then the results will be the same as before – another SB victory.
The results of such an experiment constructed in this way can only be what it is – self-evident. No "percentage of certainty" here as characteristic of probabilistic scientific methods currently used. Only a non-probabilistic scientific method of paring choice and chance, in a manner otherwise known as ordered pairs, can produce mathematically precise results that will enable us to determine if a chosen event is certain or not.
Are you with me so far? Great, so if we do the opposite, by allowing chance to make our choice, we will then obtain probable results. In this case, the decision will be made from whichever team that makes it to the SB that has the most votes of the two competing teams. Beginning with the SB XLIV, we will create the first TD billboards of chance if the TD billboard of choice does not take place.
How do we know the chance approach can only generate probable results? Case in point, since 2000, the results of the Tempt Destiny experiment shows that the team with the most votes, of the two teams competing in the Super Bowl that also won the SB, turned out to be 3 out of 9 times. The results exclude the 2007 season when the NY Giants won the TD billboard of choice. From this point on, by doing a chance billboard each year when a choice billboard is not done, we will see if the 3 to 1 odds hold, improve, or get worse with the presence of a TD billboard.
With the premise of this experiment established, we need to address concerns of validity. The results of any experiment are only as good as the validity of the variables involved. A poorly constructed experiment generates false results. Which brings us to pairing the variables of choice and chance. These two variables are mutually exclusive and jointly exhaustive (i.e. right glove - choice + left glove - chance), which means that each variable cannot control or influence the other. Influences of people, places, or time naturally contribute to choice and chance independently, when paired, such influences cancel each other out. In this way, any concerns of the conclusion or inference possibly being wrong are eliminated before the experiment even begins.
(read more by selecting the tabs below)
The Tempt Destiny billboard phenomenon:
Each time a Tempt Destiny billboard of choice is created, the team depicted goes on to win the SB game.
As mentioned before, the sole purpose of the billboard is in "support" of a SB victory which is why the artwork on the billboard is reproduced unfinished. Not until a SB victory takes place (cause), can the artwork be completed by painting the football silver to represent the trophy won (effect). In logic terms, the causality of this phenomenon is both necessary and sufficient as defined:
Necessary causes: If X (choice) is a necessary cause of Y (chance); then the presence of Y necessarily implies that X preceded it. The presence of X, however, does not imply that Y will occur.
Example: Choosing to create a TD billboard of Choice in support of a SB victory X is the necessary cause to complete the billboard painting should a SB victory happen Y. The presence of a choice made X does not imply that the team chosen will also win their championship game Y as indicated in column (a) and (b) of the results table in the "Results to Date" section below.
Sufficient causes: If X is a sufficient cause of Y, then the presence of X necessarily implies the presence of Y. However, another cause Z may alternatively cause Y. Thus the presence of Y does not imply the presence of X.
Example: Choosing to create a TD billboard of Choice in support of a SB victory X is sufficient cause to complete the billboard painting should a SB victory happen Y. The presence of SB victories Y do not imply the presence of a TD billboard X.
Results of a scientific experiment are only as good as its design and the validity of its hypothesis. As you can see, the fundamental logic of necessary and sufficient causes used to validate the hypothesis is sound. We will prove and disprove, from actual results observed to date, the following hypotheses by applying mathematical analysis with parameters pertinent to the experimental conditions.
The null hypothesis of this experiment is:
HO: It is probable that when a TD billboard of choice is created, the team depicted goes on to win the SB game.
which will be tested against the alternative:
HA: It is certain that when a TD billboard choice is created, the team depicted goes on to win the SB game.
NOTE: A Tempt Destiny billboard of chance is predicted as probable based on the results of the past ten years. What has not been established is whether the 3-1 odds established by these results will change by actually doing a Tempt Destiny billboard of chance each year when the choice billboard is not done. Beginning with SB XLIV, a chance billboard will be done to test the odds.
(read more by selecting the tabs below)
The choice and chance events that took place with the first two Tempt Destiny billboards provides the steps for the experiment which are repeated as follows:
a. Fans would chose online which team would be on the next billboard; (Choice)
b. with the chance that their team would also win its conference championship game; (Chance)
c. then the catalysts of the choice made (billboard) would take place; (Choice)
d.
in hopes of a SB victory. (Chance)
Billboard of Choice – We pair the choice made (team with the most votes) with the chance that the team chosen also wins its conference championship game. This model serves as our certainty experiment.
Billboard of Chance – Determined by the team going to the SB with the most votes between the two competing teams. In this way we will have chance make the choice. This model serves as our probability experiment.
Beginning in 2010 with SB XLIV at the conclusion of the experiment each year, should the Billboard of Choice not take place then we will do the Billboard of Chance instead.
(read more by selecting the tabs below)
CHOICE (right glove) |
CHANCE (left glove) |
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Football
Season |
X Choice
(a) |
Y Chance
(b) |
X Choice
(c) |
Y Chance
(d) |
| 2000 |
+ Rams Fans |
- Rams Team |
– |
– |
| 2001 |
+ Dolphins Fans |
- Dolphins Team |
– |
– |
| 2002 |
+ Bills Fans |
- Bills Team |
– |
– |
| 2003 |
+ Bills Fans |
- Bills Team |
– |
– |
| 2004 |
+ Vikings Fans |
- Vikings Team |
– |
– |
| 2005 |
+ Vikings Fans |
- Vikings Team |
– |
– |
| 2006 |
+ Vikings Fans |
- Vikings Team |
– |
– |
| 2007 |
+ Giants Fans |
+ Giants Team |
+ TD Billboard |
+ SB Victory |
| 2008 |
+ Eagles Fans |
- Eagles Team |
– |
– |
| 2009 |
+ Vikings Fans |
- Vikings Team |
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As noted in table above, the results are listed in the columns headed by the attributes of choice and chance (R&L gloves).
When the NYG fans won the TD billboards rights on January 20, 2008, followed by their team also winning their conference championship game, we now had the first half of our dichotomy (+, +) = choice (the right glove).
In our experiment, the TD billboard is the catalyst of the choice made, and the objective of that choice is the chance of the team depicted going on to win the SB game. When the NYG won SB XLII on February 3, 2008, the second pair was complete (+, +) giving us the second half of our dichotomy = chance (the left glove).
As outlined in the table of the Results to Date section below, the results are conclusive, (+, +) = (+, +) OR in layman terms, choice (the right glove) + chance (the left glove) = destiny (true pair).
We have also identified in the headings X and Y graph coordinates, the associated classification of choice and chance, and their sets a, b, c, d. The identities of these sets are as follows:
a = 32-element set, football team votes = X Choice
b = 32-element set, football teams = Y Chance
c = 1-element set, TD billboard = X Choice
d = 1-element set, SB victory = Y Chance |
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So lets get to the math of what the results have shown. Have you ever read a map with numbers along the top and bottom and letters on the sides? To find a location on the map of say "E-4", you follow the line from E until it meets with line 4. The coordinate of E-4 gives you your location, simple and absolute. This same principle is applied to the results. In mathematics, it is called the Cartesian product.
In figures 1.2 and 1.3, we assign a number to each team then match each team choice with each team chance as points on the X and Y axis in order to determine the coordinates derived from the results of each annual experiment. If the results are true, certain with no ambiguity, then we would see the coordinates of the results line up perfectly - just like in figures 1.2 and 1.3.
This alignment that you see from the TD experiment results is called the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient. It is widely used in the sciences as a measure of the strength of linear dependence between the variables of X and Y. When you get a value of 1 the relationship between X and Y is perfect. When you get a value of -1 the relationship between X and -Y is perfect.
What does this all mean? It means that by reconciling choice (free will) and chance we obtain the dichotomy of certainty, not the other way around as commonly reasoned. Finally, we now have actual physical evidence of what destiny consists of. And to think we have a football game to thank for this revelation.
PROOF: The results show that the Tempt Destiny billboard of choice is a predetermined event of certainty, NOT coincidental.
(read more by selecting the tabs below)
It is unknown to the extent of how many times the Tempt Destiny equation can be replicated since it applies each time a choice is made. Although the act of choice is infinite, independently, each choice made is finite. To demonstrate, I will mark the following examples using (1) choice, (2) chance, (3) catalyst of choice, (4) objective of chance, to identify the four events of this experiment:
- The game of pool (billiards). When a player chooses to make a shot (1) he hits the cue ball (2) in order to hit the chosen ball (3) into the pocket (4). Some will argue that making the shot was not destiny, it was skill. If so, then it would also be skill when the player misses.
- A comedian chooses to tell a joke (1) with the chance (2) that the punch line (3) will generate a laugh or a smile (4).
- A student takes a test by choosing the answers (1) to the questions based on the chance (2) that his answers are correct (3) in order to pass the test (4).
- In football, the offense chooses a running play (1) based on the chance (2) that they will obtain the 2 yards necessary (3) to get the first down (4).
- In 1987 and 1990, the billboard company and I chose to support the NY Giants (1), on the chance that they would make it to the Super Bowl (2), by creating a billboard (3) in support of their victory (4).
I am sure you can come up with your own examples, just make a choice - destiny will follow. The question is, which destiny?
(read more by selecting the tabs below)
From the evidence provided by the results to date, it is self-evident that destiny is a dichotomy consisting of both choice and chance, not one or the other. It is also clear that predetermined events are finite, not infinite. Although the "act" of choice and the "act" of chance are infinite, each event of choice and chance are finite.
The belief that our lives are ruled by fate focuses on the effect without the understanding of the cause. When we understand the cause and effect relationship, we then are able to discern if the choice made was certain or not. As the evidence clearly shows, fate does not initiate our choices, we do. Thinking that fate is why all events occur is akin to putting the cart before the horse.
The status of destiny as described below, comprises of two states. Certainty is a finite state of being, a thin line of choice and chance as seen in figures 1.2 and 1.3. The empirical evidence obtained from the Tempt Destiny experiment can be understood as follows:
Rules of Destiny
1. Destiny is a dichotomy consisting of choice and chance events.
2.
Events are predetermined to be certain when choice and chance are true (+, +)
3. Events are predetermined to be probable when choice and chance are not true (+, -)
4. Certainty consists of choice, which means certainty and probability are finite, not infinite.
5. Certainty consists of chance, which means that what is certain can become probable.
It is self-evident that destiny is derived from both choice and chance events from which ALL events are either certain or probable.
It is from this understanding that we can know which outcome we can expect from which billboard event, TD Billboard of Choice or TD Billboard of Chance, and why we can conduct an experiment of both certainty and probability in tandem.
From the onset, the goal was to understand the true characteristics of the TD billboard phenomenon. Although this goal has been accomplished, the results now leave us open to revelations and implications that are well beyond the scope intended. That being said, what has been brought to light from the results of this experiment is that choice (free will) and chance are one in the same in that together they form certainty, divided, they form all that is probable.
Fate is certainty, destiny is what we chose to do with it.
© 2009 Manuel Morales
I'd like to give credit where credit is due by first thanking the thousands of fans who have taken the time to demonstrate their loyalty in support of their team by voting in this competition over the past nine years and this year as well.
In addition, I'd like to thank Clear Channel Outdoor and Mammoth Media for donating their services without which the 3rd Tempt Destiny billboard would not have happened. For the record, this is a non-profit program. The sponsors mentioned and I have contributed our services without any compensation.
Also we'd like to thank the NY Giants organization for their assistance and approval of the 3rd Tempt Destiny billboard (as well as the 1st and 2nd billboards). It is important to note, that the NYG organization accepted this 3rd gift on behalf of their fans who earned it for them.
MATHEMATICIANS & PHYSISTS
I will be posting here the efforts of those in the scientific community who wish to contribute their calculations of the mathematics involved in this experiment.
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